How many new domain names will new gTLDs really produce?

How many new domain names will the explosion in gTLDs really produce? - The Next Web: "Let’s see how much oxygen new extensions will have to themselves. Even if they manage to grab something closer to a half of the annual growth potential, say that of 5 million new registrations, spreading this number among all of them allocates a very minimal user base of 10 thousand domain names per year to each new TLD. This number will not be enough for most of them to survive. An estimated budget of a typical TLD registry is between $300,000.00 and $ 2,000,000.00 per year, saying nothing about the ICANN’s application fee of $185,000.00, potential auction levies, and other costs such as extra marketing. Registries will need to keep the registration and renewal prices high at $100 per domain name to get to the black in the years to come. All known registries, which kept the fees that high in the past, never managed to pass the mark of one million registrations." (more at link above)

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